Africa’s Winners and Losers in 2011

Posted on 22 December 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

It’s been an extra-ordinary year for Africa. The biggest losers were the North African leaders Ben Ali (Tunisia), Mubarak (Egypt) and Gaddafi (Libya). All three clung to power. Mubarak and Ben Ali had ruled some 30 years, Gaddafi even more than 40 years. Whereas the Tunisian and Egyptian leaders survived their ousting, the Libyan ‘Guide of the Nation’ was executed without a trial.

It is too early to tell who the winners are in these North African countries. In Tunisia democratic elections have since been held, won by the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, but political developments don’t stop after elections. In Egypt, with well over 80 million people the most populated country of the three, the new military rulers are reluctant to hand over power to democratically elected political leaders. Libya is a ‘powder keg’. It is uncertain what the outcome will be of the internal power struggle. The country is small but has vast oil and gaz reserves. Will the country remain ‘united’? For geo-political reasons (Egypt – playing a pivotal role in the Middle East conflict) and economic-strategic interests (Libya – oil and energy supply to the USA and Western Europe),  developments in 2012 will be closely watched by the international community. But above all, the people in these countries deserve honest and democratically elected leadership.

For the biggest winners in 2011 we have to turn to West Africa. The biggest winners here are two Nigerians, Lamido Sanusi and Aliko Dangote, the Gambian Fatou Bensouda, two Liberians, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Leymah Gbowee, and the former Cape Verde president Pedro Pires.

Ex-President Pedro Pires won the prestigious Mo Ibrahim Prize, a USD 5 million
governance prize for exceptional African leadership. Mohamed Ibrahim is a Sudanese
mobile communications entrepreneur and billionaire, who created this Prize for democratically elected former African heads of state to reward democratic leadership and the peaceful transition of power. Liberian President Sirleaf, Africa’s first democratically
elected female President, and peace activist Gbowee were honored with this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, an achievement widely covered by news media all over the world.

The Gambian lawyer Fatou Bensouda will succeed Luis Moreno-Ocampo as the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC). She will thus be a key actor in the trial of former Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo, one of the biggest losers in Africa in 2011. Gbagbo refused to hand over power to Alassane Ouattara after losing the presidential elections in 2010 causing a violent four-month conflict. He was handed over to the ICC in November of this year, indicted of crimes against humanity and is held responsible for murder, rape and other crimes allegedly committed by his backers as he clung to power.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Africa’s most populated country with 150 million people, Lamido Sanusi, was named by Forbes Africa Person of the Year 2011. Governor Sanusi has played a key role in masterminding and supervising extensive reforms in Nigeria’s banking sector. His compatriot Aliko Dangote is a succesful multi-billion businessman, who in 2011 overtook Mohammed Al Amoudi and Oprah Winfrey as the richest person in the world of African descent. The Dangote group owns subsidiaries in six African countries and employs over 10,000 people. Nigeria’s ambition is to belong to the group of 20 most important economies in the world in 2020 – nowadays it is Africa’s biggest economy after South Africa – and with people like Dangote and Sanusi I have little doubt that the country will succeed.

Another West African country deserves mentioning. Ghana is among the region’s leaders, being in 2011 the second-best performer in Sub-Saharan Africa on the Rule of Law Index of the Washington-based World Justice Project. Ghana was also the best performer among the group of 66 low-income countries world-wide, covered by the Index. The country also continued to do well economically, in 2011.

The Republic of South Africa was the best African performer on the Rule of Law Index. South Africa also remains Africa’s biggest economy, but has reasons to fear Nigeria as a serious competitor.

Election Year 2011

In the beginning of this year I published a series of posts on ‘Bullet or ballot propelled changes in Africa’ focusing the political future of African countries and particularly the multi-party presidential elections that were to take place in 2011. See my posts dated March 1 and March 8. Out of 53 African countries – including the Republic of South Sudan which joined the community of African nations in July of this year – 18 countries planned to have presidential elections in 2011 (with 9 countries also holding legislative elections), an unprecedented high number. What was the outcome? Who were the winners? Who were the losers?

Well, of the 18 planned presidential elections two have been postponed (in Madagascar and Zimbabwe), one was cancelled because of a people’s revolution (Egypt). In the remaining 15 countries , 11 incumbent presidents saw their mandates renewed. As I stated before, African presidents don’t like to give up power. Only in four countries the oppositional candidate won the elections: the West-African island-nations of Cape Verde and Sao Tomé & Principe, Sahelcountry Niger in West Africa, and Zambia in Southern Africa.

Central Africa
In Central Africa four incumbent presidents managed to stay in power: Paul Biya, nick-named ‘The Gaddafi of Black Africa’ in Cameroon (ruling the country with an iron fist since 1982) ; Chad’s Idriss Deby (who chased dictator Hissein Habré in 1990 but has since remained in power), former army chief of staff François Bozizé in the Central African Republic (president after winning an internal power struggle in 2003), and Joseph Kabila who in 2001 succeeded his assassinated father.

Kabila was recently inaugurated after disputed presidential elections which the main oppositional candidate Thsisekedi claims to have won. Only one president attended Kabila’s inauguration, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and the Obama Administration has raised doubts over the legitimacy of his re-election. The situation in this vast country, big as Western Europe, risks to deteriorate and an Ivory Coast like scenario is feared.

East Africa
The three presidential elections were all won by the incumbent presidents (between brackets the year of coming to power): Museveni in Uganda (1986), Ismael Omar Guelleh in Djibouti (who succeeded his uncle Hassan Gouled Aptidon in 1999) and James Michel of the Seychelles, an Indian Ocean archipelago (2004).

Southern Africa
As already mentioned, elections were postponed in Zimbabwe and Madagascar, and won by the opposition in Zambia. Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe is one of the longest ruling African leaders: since the country’s independence in 1980.

West Africa
In Nigeria, ‘southerner’ Goodluck Jonathan was elected in his own right, after assuming the Presidency following the death of the ‘northerner’ Yar’Adua in 2010. The political tension between the north and the south of the country remains one of the most dangerous threats to Nigeria’s political stability and hence its economic aspirations. In neighbouring Benin, President Yayi Boni (2006) was re-elected whereas also Madame President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf obtained (2006) a second mandate. Finally, in the tiny republic of The Gambia dictator Jammeh (1994) won elections which hardly deserve the name.

Is there a conclusion that can be drawn from the foregoing?

Despite the demonstrated tendency of African presidents to remain at all costs in the presidential palace, I am optimistic that 2012 will bring (more) positive developments. Overall, African countries are economically not performing badly, despite the global economic crisis. Mobile telephone, internet and the use of social media have become major instruments for the dissemination of information. Events in North Africa have demonstrated that the people’s will to remove their power-thirsty and corrupt presidents can prevail. Strong people in West Africa have gained world-wide admiration and recognition. Of course, people like the Sudanese president al-Bashir have managed to avoid arrest, with the protection of certain fellow-presidents, but the day will certainly come that he also will face justice before the ICC in The Hague. May Gaddafi’s summarily execution and Gbagbo’s fate in The Hague serve as a deterrent for the dictators and human rights violators that Africa unfortunately still counts.

I wish you all a prosperous, happy and healthy 2012!

Posted in 'Mo' Ibrahim, African Politics, Aliko Dangote, Arab Revolution, Ben Ali, Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde, CAR, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Djibouti, DRC, Egypt, Elections in Africa, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Fatou Bensouda, François Bozizé, Gaddafi, Goodluck Jonathan, Guelleh, Hissein Habré, Hosmi Mubarak, Idriss Deby, Ivory Coast, James Michel, Jammeh, Jospeh Kabila, Lamido Sanusi, Leymah Gbowee, Libya, Madagascar, Museveni, Niger, Nigeria, Paul Biya, Pedro Pires, Robert Mugabe, Sao Tomé and Principe, Sata, Seychelles, The Gambia, Tshisekedi, Tunisia, Uganda, Yayi Boni, Zambia, Zimbabwe | Leave a comment

A bittersweet victory for President Sirleaf

Posted on 10 November 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

Last month, in October, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf had every reason to be happy and optimistic about the future. On October 7, she was awarded the prestigious 2011 Nobel Peace prize, together with Leymah Bowee and Tawakul Karman. On October 11, presidential elections were held and she came out Number One. And on October 29 the ‘Iron Lady’ celebrated her 73rd birthday, in good health. 

Growing political support for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

The first round of the presidential elections was won by the Unity Party (UP) candidate, incumbent president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, with 44% of the votes. Not enough for an outright victory since that would have necessitated more than 50% of the votes. Second came the presidential candidate of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) , Winston Tubman, with 33% of the votes. Number three was National Union for Democratic Progress (NUDP) leader Prince Johnson (12%) and number four Liberty Party (LP) Standard Bearer Charles Brumskine who seized 6% of the votes.

In the run-off elections of November 8, President Sirleaf faced Winston Tubman, the number 2 of the first round. Since Liberian politics is a near-family affair, they know each other well. In her autobiography ‘This Child Will Be Great’ Ellen Johnson Sirleaf describes how Winston Tubman and she attended the same  meetings of the Progressive Alliance of Liberia (PAL), a grouping of progressive Liberians in the United States of America, way back in the 1970s. Furthermore, both are Harvard educated and have worked in international organizations, the UN and the World Bank. Moreover, both are septuagenarians with firm roots in Liberia’s political establishment, traditionally dominated by the Americo-Liberian elite. So what exactly was the difference between the two candidates and their political programs?

Frankly speaking, I don’t know. The campaign for the Executive Mansion was more about characters than contents.

Both Sirleaf and Tubman were seconded by ‘silent partners’: Sirleaf by Vice President Joseph Boakai – relatively little is known about this man from Lofa County who from 1983-1985 served as Minister of Agriculture under President Samuel Doe. Tubman’s running mate was football legend George Weah, who had been defeated in the 2005 run-off elections by Sirleaf. It is interesting to note that Winston Tubman also served under Samuel Doe, as Minister of Justice from 1982-1983. In 2005 he unsuccessfully ran for president for the National Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL), the political party of the murdered president Samuel Doe. For the 2011 elections he joined the Congress of Democratic Change (CDC), Weah’s political party.

Already one week after the first round, Prince Y. Johnson, Senator for Nimba County, former warlord, ally of Charles Taylor before forming his own warring faction, and responsible for the murder of dictator Samuel Doe in 1990, announced his support for President Sirleaf in the second round. His motivation? ‘She is the lesser of two evils’, he said. However, there were rumors that a financial sum was involved. Three days later presidential candidate Winston Tubman was suddenly flown to Ghana, for medical treatment. It was unclear whether it was exhaustion or a severe malaria crisis. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s chances to win a second term were increasingly good.

October saw more political support for President Sirleaf. Presidential candidate Charles Brumskine, also a close ally of Charles Taylor before he broke with him, declared his support for Sirleaf during the second round of voting although the two had over the years seriously clashed. ‘Ellen is better than Tubman’ said Brumskine. Monrovians allege that he was offered the ECOWAS Vice Presidency which Liberia had assumed the previous day. There is no proof to support this, only future developments may tell.

Another presidential candidate Togba-Nah Tipoteh, a political old-timer and uncle of George Weah, endorsed the Unity Party presidential candidate, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Tipoteh, also a septuagenarian, served under Samuel Doe, as Minister of Planning and Economic Affairs from 1980 till 1981, when he fled to the Netherlands, fearing for his life. He is considered one of the most independent politicians. More support for the incumbent President came from Moses Blah, from Nimba County, and another former ally of warlord-President Charles Taylor. Vice President Moses Blah briefly took over the presidency after Taylor’s forced resignation in 2003.

Tubman, Weah, CDC increasingly dissatisfied and isolated

Thousands of international and national observers monitored the October 11 elections and found them free and fair. Notwithstanding the foregoing, some irregularities did happen, as was also acknowledged by the observation team led by former US President Carter. Most of these ‘irregularities’ concerned the CDC, the main opposition party.

The CDC claimed elections fraud and substantiated this with facts and pictures. Then followed a game of threatening with withdrawal from the run-off elections unless certain conditions were met, actual withdrawal, reversal, Winston Tubman declaring he was not informed about the conditions for participating or boycotting. In the end, one of the CDC conditions was met – the resignation of the Chairman of the National Elections Committee (NEC), James Fromoyan, accused of being too pro-UP – but still the CDC announced it would not participate in the run-off elections. The new boss of the NEC, Elizabeth Nelson, however, ordered the run-off elections to continue, with two parties and presidential candidates competing – the UP/Sirleaf and the CDC/Tubman – since the ballot papers had already been printed.

On the eve of the run-off elections, a peaceful demonstration held by CDC supporters ended with at least five people shot dead by the Liberian National Police. Why they did not fire rubber bullets to disperse the crowd but fired live ammunition killing demonstrators is mind-boggling. To make things worse, the Government of Liberia ordered the closure of several media outlets, radio and television stations, perceived to be pro-opposition, and accused of a hate campaign. Was it a panic-driven decision, a conscious disregard for the freedom of the press, or politically motivated?

The violence and fear of more violence plus the CDC appeal to boycott the run-off elections resulted in a low turnout of voters. Many voting boots were almost empty, all day long. A sharp contract with the first round when many people patiently waited outside the voting stations for their turn to vote.

A bittersweet victory

Provisional results of the run-off elections show us that less than 700,000 votes were cast. This means a turnout of about 38%. With almost 100% of the votes received (97% – as of November 11) more than 90% of the votes counted were in favor of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Winston Tubman received less than 10% of the votes. Some 580,000 people had voted for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.

The objective of the CDC opposition was to undermine the legitimacy of the election of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. To a large extent, it has succeeded doing so. Nevertheless, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will be Liberia’s president for the next six years. The international community, generally speaking, will be satisfied with the result. However – and maybe more important given Liberia’s fragile peace and political stability – Liberians clearly are divided about the outcome of the presidential elections.

Challenges

The above means that President Sirleaf faces more than ever the challenge to unite and reconcile Liberians. She will not only have to perform good in the eyes of the international community – who rewarded her with a Nobel peace prize, the cancellation of the country’s 4 billion dollar foreign debt, and with 13 billion dollars in committed foreign investments. She will also have to convince Liberians that she takes their complaints about the rampant corruption in the country seriously. She needs to avoid the impression of nepotism, putting relatives and confidants in high ranking positions, as now is the case. She may need to prove accusations of economic empire building to be wrong. Maybe above all, she will have to give hope to all Liberians that their future will be better than the past years. I am afraid that if she would fail to meet these expectations she will face serious difficulties during her second term.

President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has won this battle, and I sincerely congratulate her with this achievement. However, she has not won the war. Her victory is bittersweet.

Posted in Charles Brumskine, Elections in Liberia, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, George Weah, James Fromoyan, Joseph Boakai, Liberia, Moses Blah, National Elections Commission (NEC), Nobel Peace Prize, Prince Y. Johnson, Progressive Alliance of Liberia (PAL), Samuel Kanyon Doe, Tipoteh, Winston Tubman | Leave a comment

Elections in Liberia: The Long Walk To Democracy in Africa’s Oldest Republic

Posted on 29 September 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

On October 11 presidential and legislative elections will be held in Liberia. Incumbent President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf faces 15 presidential aspirants who share one goal: unseat Africa’s first democratically elected female president. Liberia’s Iron Lady, however, is with her 72 years ready for a second term.

Liberia comes from far. Africa’s oldest republic celebrated its 164th independence anniversary earlier this year. Yet the country classifies among the 48 poorest countries on earth. Health conditions are appalling, illiteracy widespread and unemployment sky-high. Whereas fifty years ago the Liberian economy was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the civil war that raged between 1989 and 2003 destroyed everything that had been built up during the previous century.

After the resignation of warlord-president Charles Taylor in 2003 the country had to start from scratch: rebuild the economy, regain the confidence of investors – both foreign and domestic – and reconcile the population. The ‘classical’ divide in the Liberian society, between descendants of the 19th century settlers (‘Americo-Liberians’) and the tribal population (‘Afro-Liberians’), had been complicated by a civil war based on tribal identity and alliances.

In the runoff election of November 8, 2005 two competitors competed for the presidency: veteran politician Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and former soccer star George Weah (‘King George’). The Iron Lady won, with 60% of the votes. Africa’s first democratically elected President is a Harvard educated economist with an extensive international network, has tribal roots, and an Americo-Liberian background.  Whereas the first two characteristics  have much helped to regain the confidence of the international community, her internal political position is not undisputed. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf acknowledged supporting  Charles Taylor in the first phase of the civil war – for which she later publicly apologized. In 2009 Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC) recommended in its final report that she be banned from public office for thirty years after the expiration of her presidential term. The TRC report’s recommendations, however, were never subject of an official political debate. Another reason for her low popularity among many Liberians is the high level of corruption in the country, notably among civil servants. It can hardly surprise with an annual budget of only 550 million US dollars (fiscal year 2011/2012), even if the Minister of Finance recently announced that the minimum salary of civil service employees will be raised to 100 US dollars a month. In addition, according to unconfirmed rumours membership of Sirleaf’s Unity Party (UP) has become a prerequisite for government employment – a phenomenon common in many African countries.

Sirleaf’s main competitor in the race to the Executive Mansion also is a Harvard graduate. The 70 year old Winston A. Tubman is a politician of Americo-Liberian descent. He earned a degree from Harvard Law School in 1966, then established his own law firm in Liberia. He also has extensive United Nations experience, most recently as the Secretary-General’s representative and head of the United Nations Political Office for Somalia, from 2002 to 2005. He belongs to one of Liberia’s most influential families, the name Tubman is well known to all Liberians. Winston Tubman’s uncle was William V.S. Tubman, Liberia’s longest ruling president (1944-1971). Winston Tubman served as Minister of Justice under dictator Samuel Doe and in 2005 unsuccessfully ran for president on the ticket of Samuel Doe’s National Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL). In the October 11 elections he is the presidential candidate of George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change (CDC).

Perhaps the most important opposition politician is Counselor Charles W. Brumskine, the leader of the Liberty Party. He ended third in the 2005 presidential elections. In the 1990s Brumskine was an important ally of Charles Taylor and in 1997 became President Pro Tempore of the Senate. He fled Liberia after he broke with Taylor and his political party. Allegedly, Charles Brumskine had ties with Gus Kouwenhoven – accused of arms trading for Taylor during the civil war.

Sirleaf, Tubman and Brumskine are the main contenders although there are thirteen more who want to become Liberia’s next president. One of them is millionaire Dew Mayson, once a progressive politician, later serving under Doe, and allegedly rich because of his involvement in the sale of arms and his relationship with Dutch arms dealer Gus Kouwenhoven.  Another presidential aspirant is former warlord Prince Yormie Johnson, who led the I-NPFL faction in Liberia’s civil war and tortured President Samuel Doe to death in 1990. Veteran politician Togbah Nah Tipoteh may have the cleanest record of all candidates. He has a firm reputation of being uncorrupt and principled, and is one of the few leading Liberian politicians who stayed in the country throughout the civil war period. This even made him one of the most serious candidates after a referendum was rejected which maintained the constitutional ‘residency clause’ for presidential candidates at ten years. However, not surprisingly, the Chairman of the National Election Commission (NEC), James Fromoyan, hastened to declare that the formulation of the clause was vague and ambiguous, and hence did not hold. Fromoyan was subsequently accused of being pro-UP, the political party of President Sirleaf.

National and international observers will monitor the October 11 elections. Whatever the outcome of these elections, Liberia needs political stability and peace if it wants to develop and improve the living conditions of its population. This week it was announced that ArcelorMittal has begun operations at it mining site in Yekepa, Nimba County, where half a century ago the Swedish-Liberian LAMCO mining company contributed to the double digit growth of the Liberian economy. On October 11 the people of Liberia will not only vote for a president but also for progress.

Posted in ArcelorMittal, Charles Brumskine, Charles Taylor, Civil War(s) Liberia, Dew Mayson, Elections in Liberia, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, George Weah, Gus Kouwenhoven, Guus Kouwenhoven, James Fromoyan, Liberia, Liberian Economy, national budget, National Elections Commission (NEC), Prince Y. Johnson, Samuel Kanyon Doe, Tipoteh, Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC), William V.S. Tubman, Winston Tubman | Leave a comment

Gaddafi and Liberia (Part 1 – revised version)

Posted on 22 August 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

Gaddafi’s political end is near – it even may be a fact by the time I finish this post. But predicting political developments is risky, it is much safer to look back. I can’t help it: I look at the past every time a dictator is removed, I think of all his friends who suddenly turn their back to their former ally, business partner or generous sponsor of development projects or – even- subversive activities. Hence also now, when the Gaddafi regime is crumbling.

Gaddafi is no stranger to Liberia. When Moammar Gaddaffi seized power, in 1969, he became one of the world’s youngest heads of state. At that time William V.S. Tubman ruled in Liberia. William R. Tolbert who became President after Tubman’s death in 1971 changed his predecessor’s rigid, western-oriented foreign policy. In 1974 President Tolbert and Moammar Gaddafi, head of Libya’s Revolutionary Command Council, signed an agreement for economic and commercial cooperation though it would take nearly five years to formalize the entire agreement, in 1979 – under the administration of then Finance Minister Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Gaddafi visited Liberia the same year, on the occasion of the OAU summit which was held in Liberia.

The following year the coup d’état took place that changed Liberia’s history. Gaddafi immediately expressed support for the new military junta, led by master-sergeant Samuel Doe, but, after initially hesitating between a pro-US or a pro-Soviet stance, Doe opted for the Americans. US President Reagan, inaugurated in 1981, was very pleased with ‘Chairman Moe’ who closed the Libyan embassy in Monrovia, a decision which revealed a rift in the ruling People’s Redemption Council (PRC), its Vice-Chairman Thomas Weh-Syen criticizing Doe’s decision. Thomas Weh-Syen represented the left-wing of the PRC, opposing relations with the USA. When in 1981 Weh-Syen returned from a visit to Gaddafi’s Libya he was arrested, accused of plotting against Doe, and with four others executed on August 14, 1981.

Despite Doe’s dislike for the Libyan leader he visited Tripoli, the capital of Libya, in 1988, when US-Liberian relations were increasingly growing sour. It has been reported that Libya invested over USD 100 million of investments in Liberia between 1980 and 1990. Investments included the creation and commercialization of the Union Glass Factory, which exported glass bottles to Mano River Union (MRU) partners Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone and Guinea, and the construction of the Pan African Plaza, which now houses the staff of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL).

While Doe and Gaddafi were courting each other another Liberian visited Libya. His name was Charles Taylor. Allegedly Taylor received military training in one of Libya’s camps at Mathaba in 1985. Moses Blah, Taylor’s Vice President testified before Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC) that Libya provided military training and financial support to the NPFL fighters, paid for Taylor’s home in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, used by Taylor to travel to and from Tripoli. Allegedly the Libyan leader also organized and financed the recruiting and arming of NPFL sympathizers in neighboring West African countries, aided by his Burkinabe ally President Blaise Compaore, who – besides – had also received a military training in Libya. All this was confirmed by former US Secretary of State for African affairs, Herman Cohen, who testified before the TRC: ‘We knew that then guerrilla fighters had been trained in Libya and that their arms had come from Burkina Faso, and they were getting full support from Côte d’Ivoire.’

Gaddafi and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

During the present administration of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf economic and diplomatic relations between Libya and Liberia were increasing – until June this year. Bilateral cooperation increased with Libyan-funded agricultural projects and with Libyan investments in Liberia’s infrastructure. Gaddafi’s fall will mean these projects’ end, or at least a temporary standstill.

In January 2009, Colonel Moammar Gaddafi made a stopover at the Robertsfield International Airport in Harbel, Liberia, where he met with President Sirleaf. Two years later Ellen Johnson Sirleaf visited Tripoli.

Apparently, relations between the two Heads of State were more than good, given the images of their meetings and the length of the January 2011 visit. What was intended to be a one-day visit lasted three days, January 6-8. On the first day of her visit, President Sirleaf was offered a dinner by the Libyan leader. Talks were held on a great variety of topics: on the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and other African issues like the crisis in the Ivory Coast and the related problem of the over 30,000 refugees. President Sirleaf and the Libyan leader also had a comprehensive review of the Libya funded projects in Liberia, notably the Foya Rice project, the Ducor Hotel rehabilitation project, the rehabilitation of the rubber processing plant in Bong County, and the Libya-donated tractors. 
The USD 30 mln Foya Rice project, in Lofa County, is one of the most controversial agricultural investments in Liberia and is being implemented through the Foundation for African Development Aid (ADA), a Libyan company, and Libya Africa Investment Portfolio (LAP). Reportedly the project failed before it even started and not a grain of rice has been harvested. Furthermore, the Liberian government had formally handed over to the Libyan African Investment Company (LAICO) the Ducor Hotel in Monrovia and the Gbarnga Rubber Processing Site, both of which were to be redeveloped with Libyan financing. The cost of the two projects were estimated at USD 65 million.

Before leaving Tripoli President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf extended an invitation to Colonel Gaddafi to join her at this year’s July 26 celebrations in Lofa County as her special guest.

However, a month after the meeting in Tripoli, the revolt started in the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, echoing events in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia where dictators had been forced to relinquish power. Four months later, on June 16 Liberia severed diplomatic relations with Libya, joining an increasing group of countries distancing themselves from a former ally, friend and partner. That was three days after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had urged African leaders to drop Gaddafi at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.

Posted in Arab Revolution, Charles Taylor, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Gaddafi, Liberia, Mano River Union (MRU), Samuel Kanyon Doe, Thomas Weh-Syen, William R. Tolbert Jr., William V.S. Tubman | Leave a comment

26 July: A historic day to remember

Posted on 26 July 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

For three reasons 26 July is a historic day and that’s today’s topic of this blog.

First, Liberia. In July 1847 a Constitutional Convention convened in Monrovia which at that time had approximately 1,000 inhabitants. The towns of Monrovia, New Georgia, Caldwell and Millsburg in Montserrado County, Marshall, Edina, Bexley and Bassa Cove – Buchanan in Grand Bassa County and Greenville in Sinoe County sent eleven delegates to the Convention: 6 from Montserrado County, 4 from Grand Bassa County and 1 from Sinoe County. Liberia was declared a Free, Sovereign and Independent Nation on 26 July, 1847. The constitution of the republic  differed only in some aspects from the U.S. Constitution.  Also the Liberian flag closely resembles the American national symbol. The eleven stripes of the Liberian flag refer to the eleven delegates to the Constitutional Convention, who signed the Declaration of Independence.

The eleven men were: Samuel Benedict, presiding the convention, Hilary Teague, Elijah Johnson, John N. Lewis, Beverly R. Wilson and J.B. Gripon (representatives of Montserrado County); John Day, Amos Herring, Anthony W. Gardner, Ephrain Titler (representatives of Grand Bassa County); and Richard E. Murray, representative of Sinoe County. The independent state of Maryland in Africa, created in 1854, joined Africa’s first republic in 1857. 

Secondly, the Netherlands. On 26 July, 1581 the parliament of the Northern Low Countries adopted the Act of Abjuration which in fact represented a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. Since 1559 the people of the ‘Low Lands’ as the region was commonly called, fought for  independence from the King of Spain who then ruled over a large part of western Europe. The main issue at stake was the freedom of religion. The Dutch Revolt would only lead to a de jure (formal) independence in 1648, but the de facto independence dates from this historic day: 26 July, 1581. Four hundred and thirty years ago…  

The 1581 Act of Abjuration  is known to have served worldwide as an exemple, e.g. for the authors of the U.S. Declaration of Independence (1776) as well as for the French revolutionaries who abolished the monarchy and established the French Republic (1789). Hence, indirectly, the Act of Abjuration was a source of inspiration for the constitutions of the 20th century, e.g. in Africa.

No common knowledge, I assume… 

Thirdly, 26 July …. is my birthday. What a coincidence, to be born on this historic day. So today I celebrate my birthday, the independence of my country, and Liberia’s independence!

Have a Happy 26 July!!!

Posted in 'July 26', Liberia, Liberian History | Leave a comment

Two powerful women: Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

Posted on 7 July 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

Liberia and Nigeria are very different but there is one important exception:  in both countries a woman plays a key role in national politics. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Africa’s first elected female president,  does not need any introduction to the regular readers of this blog, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala might – but I would not be surprised if her fame is also known to many readers. From 2003 to 2006, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was Finance Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister of Nigeria, the first woman to hold these positions.
With over 150 million inhabitants, Nigeria is Africa’s largest and potentially most powerful country. The federal republic of Nigeria consists of 36 states – some people say 36 ‘mini-republics’ – and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. When in 1999 – after nearly 33 years of military rule – democratic elections were held these were won by a former general and president, Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007). In 2003 Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was appointed Minister of Finance and Economy and Head of the Presidential Economic Team responsible for implementing a home grown economic reform program – NEEDS, National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy – that stabilized the economy, improved the country’s financial stability and tripled the growth rate to a yearly 6% (2003-2006). Her major achievement, however, was the successful negotiation with fifteen countries united in the Paris Club to which Nigeria owed over US $ 30 billion. Nigeria repaid US $12 billion and the 15 creditor countries cancelled US $18 billion. It was the biggest debt cancellation ever made, barring the one with Iraq in 2004.

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala is an Igbo, from Delta State, and of royal descent. Her father, Professor Chukuka Okonjo, is the Obi, or King, from the Umu Obi Obahai Royal family of Ogwashi-Ukwu. She was educated at Harvard University – like Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – graduating magna cum laude in 1977, and earned her Ph.D. in regional economics and development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technlogy (MIT). Prior to her appointment as Nigeria’s Finance Minister she had a 21-year career as development economist at the World Bank – an employer she shares with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – and in 2006 she returned to her former employer. When World Bank Director Paul Wolfowitz had to quit the institution, she was even considered as a possible replacement. In 2007, she was appointed as Managing Director at the World Bank by Wolfowitz’s successor, Robert Zoellick.

A very recent evaluation of the 2005 debt deal between the Paris Club and Nigeria concludes that the decision to relieve Nigeria’s debt was justified – a remarkable conclusion given the widespread criticism of the agreement. Its critics pointed at the high oil revenues worth billions of US dollars, Nigeria’s notorious reputation as one of the world’s most corrupt countries, and the mismanagement of the public sector. The evaluation report provides ample argumentation for this positive and surprising conclusion.
The second, and in view of the future, most important conclusion is that Nigeria’s economic and financial position has improved since 2005, in part thanks to the debt relief agreement. Nigeria’s current economic position is much better than before the agreement. This is an important achievement since one of Nigeria’s ambitions is to belong to the world’s top twenty economies by the year 2020, elaborated in ‘Vision 2020’. Already Nigeria is the second biggest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa!

Like Okonjo-Iweala, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf struck an important deal erasing the external debt of Africa’s oldest republic, a staggering US $4 billion, an insupportable burden for this small West African country of just over 3 million people. It would be interesting to have this debt cancellation evaluated too. After all, the tax payers in the developed creditor countries are footing the bill, one way or the other. Notwithstanding the foregoing, however, the evaluators of Nigeria’s debt deal concluded that the creditor countries have also benefited from the deal.
In April of this year Goodluck Jonathan was elected in his own right as Nigeria’s new president. On May 6 he was sworn in as the country’s 14th and current president. Subsequently it was announced that madame Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is to become President Jonathan’s new Minister of Finance.  Though not yet confirmed when publishing the present post, Nigerian newspapers already reported on the Senate screening of ministerial candidates and the confirmation of Okonjo-Iweala’s nomination.

She again faces an enormous challenge: to contribute to the realization of the Vision 20:2020 agenda of the Federal Government. I have no doubt Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will again play a key role in the national politics of Africa’s biggest country. Her close relations with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, also a former Minister of Finance and who rose to the highest position in her country, may be inspiring. Certainly we will hear a lot more about her. As an appetizer, see this entertaining and interesting November 2010 Africare Interview with the two most powerful women in West Africa, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Be sure to put on a full screen!

Africa Interview: President Sirleaf, Dr. Darius Mans and Dr. Okonjo-Iweala

Posted in African Politics, Debt relief, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Famous Liberians, Liberia, Nigeria, Paris Club | Leave a comment

More investors coming to Liberia

Posted on 21 May 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

Liberia is not a poor country. It has abundant natural resources: gold, diamonds, iron ore, oil and timber. Its agricultural potential notably includes rubber and palm oil. In the 20th century this small West African country, the size of Ohio, had the world’s largest rubber plantation, was Africa’s largest producer of iron ore, and had the world’s largest mercantile fleet.

A bloody coup d’état in 1980 changed this situation. Master-Sergeant Doe assassinated the Americo-Liberian president William R. Tolbert Jr., a Baptist pastor, and became the first indigenous president of Africa’s first and oldest republic. However, from a thin, soft-spoken ‘liberator’, Samuel Doe turned into a greedy, corpulent dictator, who rigged elections, violated human rights and imprisoned political opponents – among them, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Prince Johnson, one of the warlords in Liberia’s civil war, brutally tortured Doe to death in 1990. Another warlord, Charles Taylor, was elected in 1997, after the first civil war (1989-1996). Soon followed the second war (1997-2003). The 14 years of civil conflict killed an estimated 250,000 people, mutilated many more, and traumatized even more. When the civil war was over, the country had to start from scratch, foreign investors had left, the modern economy was ruined. Liberia was back to the situation in 1822, the year the first black colonists and people of mixed race arrived from overseas, the U.S.A., and imposed their rule on the indigenous population. Liberia started the 21st century with an elected president, former warlord Charles Taylor, who was forced to resign in 2003, subsequently went into exile, but was later handed over to the Sierra Leone War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague, in the Netherlands, where he was charged with eleven criminal charges related to his alleged involvement in Sierra Leone’s civil war (1991-2002). The verdict is due this year.

Liberia’s hope now is Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a former international banker and international civil servant, and already for decades one of Liberia’s most prominent citizens. She performed important functions in Liberia: in the late 1970s she was Minister of Finance serving in the Tolbert Administration. She became president of Liberia in 2006 following multi-party elections, defeating internationally acclaimed football star George Weah, and thus became Africa’s first democratically elected female president.
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s skills, experience and international connections have resulted in an impressive number of important achievements, in particular the cancellation of the country’s staggering US$ 4 billion dollar debt and the signing of concession agreements with foreign investors. Liberians themselves do not have the capital needed to invest in major, large-scale productive activities in the country, exploiting the country’s economic potential. This is an old story that has haunted the country’s past and played an important role in its internal politics. It even was a major cause of the country’s first coup d’état, in 1871. But let’s return to 2011.

Liberia’s three million people are among the poorest of the planet. 85% of the people live on less than US$ 1 a day. I will not quote more statistics – most statistics are ‘guesstimates’. However, unemployment in the modern economy is sky-high, salaries for paid jobs extremely low, and people in the subsistence economy survive at an extremely low level. Hence, any investor – foreign or domestic – is expected to provide relief, opportunities and hope.

Since the start of her Administration, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has managed to convince a growing number of foreign investors to come and invest in Liberia. Like in the ‘good old days’, the late 1950s end early 1960s, when Liberia had double digit growth figures and ranked among the fastest growing economies of the world.

President Sirleaf achievements
Among the foreign investors in the country’s rubber sector are the nowadays Japanese owners of the former US rubber giant Firestone. She has atracted important foreign investors in the gold and mining sector too, but may be her biggest success was the multi-billion dollar deal with steel giant Mittal to exploit the rich Yekepa iron ore deposits and rehabilitate the former LAMCO mine, in the north of the country, bordering Guinea. This week it was announced that a US$ 3.1 billion investment in the palm oil sector was agreed, with a Malaysian investor. This raises total foreign investments in the palm oil sector to over US$ 5 billion! The investments will be spread over the coming years and Liberia may thus become one of the world’s major producer of palm oil and related products.

Foreign investors need political and macroeconomic stability and sound macroeconomic policies that are conducive to economic growth, and they do not want to deal with predatory, corrupt politicians, civil servants or other people. However, Liberia was declared the world’s most corrupt country in 201o by Transparency International and the 2010 Human Rights report of the U.S. State Department also was not very flattering for the country, accusing the Liberian judicial system of corruption.

President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf had proven her important stabilizing role in the present political and economic environment. Her engagement in fighting corruption is equally important. She is convinced that Liberia has to recover, the country has to be reconstructed after the devastating years of the recent past.

In October of this year presidential elecions will be held. Among the main candidates are the imcumbent president, the 72-year old Ellen Johnson Sirleaf; Winston Tubman, nephew of Liberia’s longest serving President William Tubman of Americo-Liberian descent – who ruled the country for 27 years; Prince Johnson, nowadays Senator in the Liberian Legislature, and who tortured President Doe to death; and Charles Brumskine, once a Taylor ally, now an independent candidate.

To be continued

Posted in Charles Taylor, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Liberia, Liberian Economy, Liberian History, Samuel Kanyon Doe, William R. Tolbert Jr., William V.S. Tubman | Leave a comment

Which way, Ivory Coast?

Posted on 12 April 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

 

April 12 is a date to remember. Liberians immediately think of April 12 1980: the day Master Sergeant Samuel Doe seized power and the country made a U-turn from which it still has to recover. Ivorians now have their own ‘April 12’: the day Alassane Ouattara finally got hold of the presidency, after the arrest of his opponent, the incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo who refused to give up power peacefully after losing the elections. Early December 2010 both men were sworn in as the country’s new president. For the past four months, the country has been on the brink of a civil war – and it still is. Alassane Ouattara got 55% of the votes, Laurent Gbagbo 45%. While publicly fighting, the two opponents seem not to dislike each other. However, after the fighting started, tens of thousands Ivorians have fled to neighbouring Liberia, maybe even more than a hundred thousand. See my December 9 posting, ‘Liberia and the Ivory Coast Crisis’, which also explains the power vacuum left by the death of the country’s first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in 1993. Since then, the country has experienced turmoil. Will that be ending now? Where will Ivory Coast be heading to? In my opinion there are three options. First, and let’s look at the Ivorian scene from a positive and optimistic angle, Allassane Ouattara – his name indicates his Burkinabe origin – manages to install himself as the country’s legitimate president and convinces his fellow-countrymen to forget about revenge. After all, some 45% of the people voted for Gbagbo. The exodus of Ivorians now taking place contradicts the probability of this option. People who are fleeing and leaving the country are not thinking of revenge but they may translate the feelings of people in their community who decide to stay. The abundance of weapons in the region is another reason to worry. This brings me to the second option. Another civil war will ravage the region – after the wars in Sierra Leone and in Liberia. In this option there will be rising numbers of IPDs, internally displaced persons (Ivorians who look for a safe shelter within their own country) and of refugees, people fleeing to neighbouring countries: Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Liberia. It will be clear that in this option the regional perturbation may inspire governments of countries involved – directly or indirectly – to intervene, openly or covertly. This reaction might not be restricted to neighbouring countries. The regional ‘policeman’ – Nigeria – may be willing to intervene, to confirm its positions as the region’s superpower. This brings me to the last option: foreign intervention.

Just as France intervened military in Ivory Coast, which made yesterday’s arrest of Laurent Gbagbo possible, Nigeria may have its own reasons to intervene. After all, Nigeria did come to the rescue of Liberia, in 1990. The reasons are known, allegedly ‘special’ relations between then Nigerian President Ibrahim Babangida and the Liberian President Samuel Doe. This week, presidential elections will be held in Nigeria and most likely the incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan – who took over from president Yar’Adua who died in office – will win the elections. Once he is elected in his own right, President Goodluck Jonathan may decide to confirm Nigeria’s aspirations, not only to belong to the G20 – the world’s leading 20 economies – in 2020 but also to be a superpower in Africa. After all, Nigeria is not only the second economy in Sub-Saharan Africa but with 150 million inhabitants also Africa’s biggest country. One out of every five black Africans is Nigerian.

As April 12 1980 was a U-turn for Liberia , I hope that April 12 2011 turns out to be a U-turn for the people of Ivory Coast. The country has all the potential to become one of the region’s leading economies, after Nigeria and Ghana. As the French say: ‘Affaire à suivre’ – which means: To be followed.
Posted in Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Samuel Kanyon Doe | Leave a comment

Addition to my March 1 posting on ‘Bullet or ballot propelled changes in Africa’

Posted on 8 March 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

There are over 50 ‘countries’ in ‘Africa’ – the smallest being the Seychelles, population wise, the biggest of course Nigeria – so the fact that I missed two countries in my last posting may be pardoned. Nevertheless, a serious error. Since I was focusing on the countries where presidential elections would be held I did not mention the two Presidents who as far back as 1979 (!) assumed the Presidency: Angola’s President José Eduardo dos Santos and Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who became President in a coup that led to the execution of his deposed uncle, Francisco Macías Nguema.

Nowadays 67-year-old José Eduardo dos Santos, who succeeded Agostinho Neto who had died in office, is known as Angola’s silent leader. Presidential elections are not held in the country. President Teodoro Nguema suffers from prostate cancer and prepares his corrupt playboy-son-turned-minister Teodorin for the Presidency of this oil-rich country, Africa’s Kuwait. Very recently, ‘Teodorin‘ came into the news because of his purchase of a 375 million dollar yacht. But who’s to blame? The ‘bad guy’ Teodorin, the oil companies, the Swiss banks or the German shipyards?

By the way, this dynasty thing of African leaders, I don’t get it. When Gabon president Omar Bongo, Africa’s longest ruling President, died in June 2009, he was succeeded by his son Ali . Four years earlier Togolese President Eyadéma had died and he was also succeeded by this son, Faure Ngassingbé. And when in 2001 President Laurent Kabila was shot – by one of his security guards – his son Joseph still managed to get a popular vote allowing him to rule as the president of this vast Central African country. Wikileaks recently revealed that Joseph Kabila bribed members of the Congolese Parliamant to ensure his forthcoming re-election, in November of this year. 

Some people have qualified the present decade as ‘The Scramble for African Oil’ – referring to the Scramble for Africa, the colonial conquest of Afica, as from the 1880s onwards. Of course, it is not only oil. Also coltan, for instance, in Eastern Congo, which keeps the war in this vast Central African country going.

So far, we only dicscussed African presidents and no kings, although the line between them seems to be thin. Consequently we haven’t mentioned King Mwsati III of Swaziland who rules since 1986.

There seems to be a big gap between the populace and the elite – in almost every African country – and where leaders are not inclined to listen to the people, their day will come.

A big question remains: How to judge people who with the connivance of Swiss bankers, Western oil companies, and European and US political leaders – who sought their own interests – took advantage of the circumstances and enriched themselves, illegally.

The ballot or the bullet????

Posted in Coups in Africa, Elections in Africa, Liberia | Leave a comment

Ballot or bullet propelled changes in Africa in 2011?

Posted on 1 March 2011 by Dr. Fred P.M. van der Kraaij

In January, Tunisia’s President Ben Ali fell and in February Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. Will in March the Libyan people oust its leader, Muammar Muhammed al-Gaddafi aka Colonel Gaddafi? Where will Gaddafi go to? To his friend Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe?

Will he join Ethiopia’s former dictator, ‘the Red Emperor’, Mengistu Haile Mariam, who lives just outside the capital of Harare, or will he share the fate of Romanian president Nicolae Ceausescu who was dethroned by a people’s revolution and after a two-hour trial executed? Both Gaddafi and Ceausescu created a pervasive personality cult and in the end were completely disconnected from reality. Or will Colonel Gaddafi follow former Liberian dictator Charles Taylor’s footsteps in The Hague and stand trial before the International Criminal Court for human rights violations, mass murder and crimes against humanity? Will his reign come to an end by revolutionary forces or will there be a US-led military intervention to stop an emerging civil war causing tens of thousands mainly migrant workers to flee to neighboring countries? How many uncertainties there are, there is no doubt that Gaddafi is on his way out. His widely televised delusional speech yesterday reminds us of the Iraqi Information Minister who standing before a camera in 2003 denied the advancement of US troops while bombs exploded behind his back.

It is the end of an era. In 1972, three years after Colonel Gaddafi had seized power and dethroned King Idriss I visited Libya and was very much impressed. The country’s capital Tripoli was well organized, the bonanza of the oil revenues was clearly visible in this sparsely populated country of less than two million people. Nowadays, the per capita income in this North African country is among the highest in Africa, only surpassed by the tiny Central African oil state of Equatorial Guinea.

As referred to in my posts of November 5 last year and January 4 this year, the year 2011 is a year of elections in Africa. The power of the ballot box. Presidential elections are scheduled in 18 African countries: 6 in West Africa (Benin, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Liberia, Niger and Nigeria), 5 in Central Africa (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sao Tomé & Principe) , 3 in Eastern Africa (Djibouti, Seychelles, Uganda), 3 in Southern Africa (Madagascar, Zambia, Zimbabwe), and 1 in North Africa: Egypt. But are the people of these and other countries willing to wait for a democratic opportunity to change their leaders? Already in Egypt, the population made it clear that it did not want to wait until election time, though the change was peaceful.

Is there a possibility that the revolutionary mood in North Africa spreads to Sub-Saharan Africa? In six Sub-Saharan countries the sitting President has been in power for over 20 years and is not considering leaving. Among them Paul Biya, also called the Gaddafi of Black Africa. In February 2008 he merciless crushed a demonstration against hs government leaving hundreds of young Cameroonians dead. Paul Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982 and although presidential elections are slated for this year, no one expects him to relinquish power. His only senior in Africa is the notorious 87-year old Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, in power since the country’s independence from Britain in 1980. The 2008 elections were widely disputed and forced Mugabe into a coalition government with his arch rival now Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. Mugabe is increasingly facing calls to resign but refuses, claiming ‘Zimbabwe is mine – I will never surrender.’

Two other Presidents shot their way to the Presidency: Yoweri Museveni (Uganda, 1986) and Blaise Compaoré (Burkina Faso, 1987). In the February 18 elections, last month, Museveni won more than two-thirds of the votes in elections rejected by the opposition as fraudulent. Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaoré had his mandate easily renewed in November 2010.

Prime Minister, not President, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia and President Idriss Deby of Chad also came to power through the barrel of a gun – both in 1991 and are not considering another job. Deby easily won the February elections of this year in the oil-rich Central African country. Meles Zenawi – increasingly accused of political repression and a disregard for civil liberties – occasionally announces his departure as the country’s de facto leader but nevertheless holds on to power.

There are no clear signs that there will be many substantial political changes in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 – neither by the bullet nor by the ballot. But íf a revolt would erupt in countries like Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Uganda or Zimbabwe nobody can be surprised.

Posted in Coups in Africa, Elections in Africa, Liberia | Leave a comment